Calibrated Churn Predictor
Most churn models give a score nobody trusts. This one gives calibrated probabilities with a reason for each - so retention spend actually pays off.
NIGHTLY SCORING - SUBSCRIBER BASE
Subscribers · 48,000
…47,995 more scored in 41s
UAB Nova Praktika · 14 seats · 26 mo tenure
churn probability, next 30 days · calibrated - when this model says 70%, ~70% actually leave
Why - top 3 drivers
How it works
Connect, read-only
Billing + CRM + product usage (Pipedrive, HubSpot, your DB). No PII leaves your environment; the model trains on behavior, not identity.
Calibrated probability per customer
Not a vague "high/medium/low" - a percentage that means what it says, validated with a reliability curve you can inspect.
A reason, in plain language
Top-3 drivers per customer (usage drop, login gap, seat shrinkage) - so marketing builds three targeted save flows instead of one generic blast.
It tells you when it goes stale
Drift monitoring watches your customer mix; when behaviour shifts, you get an alert and a retrain - not silently wrong scores.
The Four Guarantees™ - this build
Measured value
~5% of churned ARR recovered (€30k/yr at reference) + €10-15k/yr retention-spend reallocation. Brier/ECE eval gate before ship.
Defensible
A reason for every score (GDPR Art. 22 ready); protected attributes excluded by design and audited for proxies; every score logged.
Self-correcting
Isotonic-calibrated probabilities; PSI/KS drift alerts on customer features; champion/challenger retraining - accuracy compounds.
Yours & everywhere
Your cloud, full source handover, CRM write-back. MCP scoring endpoint your own agents and copilots can call.
The number, sized honestly
Reference buyer: Baltic SaaS / telco, ~50,000 subscribers, €20/mo ARPU, ~5%/month churn (≈ €600k churned ARR/yr).
Three ways to own it
| Tier | What you get | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scaffolding ★ | The full repo - model + calibration + eval harness, Annex IV, audit log, MCP server. Your team wires it to your data. | €1,690 | |
| PoC ★★RECOMMENDED | Trained on your subscriber history - calibration and lift measured on held-out months of your own data. Full code + quality report are yours. No guarantee until your data has spoken. | from €5,000 | |
| Implementation ★★★ | Production: scoring live in your stack, save-flow wiring, calibration monitoring, scheduled retraining, monthly value report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here. | from €15,000 |
★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.
What we don't promise
Ready to see your own number?
Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.
No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU