Demand Forecasting (LT calendar)
Forecasts with honest prediction intervals and scenario planning - cut inventory cost without stockouts.
SKU 4212 · PIENAS 2.5% 1L · STORE 4 - 14-DAY FORECAST
Order proposal
96 units
covers P90 through Friday at your 95% service target
drivers: trend +4% · Fri peak · promo widens the interval - honestly
How it works
Connect ERP / WMS, read-only
Sales at SKU-store-day level, promotions, stock, lead times. Hierarchical: SKU → category → store → total, reconciled so the numbers add up.
Forecast as a range, not a guess
P10/P50/P90 for the next 14 days, with the Lithuanian calendar built in - holidays, paydays, and that first hot week of summer.
Safety stock from the math
Order proposals sized to your service-level target per category - perishables and slow-movers get different treatment, automatically.
Coverage is watched, honestly
If the 90% interval stops containing ~90% of outcomes, the model recalibrates and tells you - a forecast that can say "I'm less sure this week" is one you can plan on.
The Four Guarantees™ - this build
Measured value
~30% less overstock writedown + ~25% fewer stockouts + working capital freed. Pinball-loss + interval-coverage eval gate vs seasonal-naive.
Defensible
Driver decomposition per forecast - trend, seasonality, promo, holiday. Auditable assumptions; every scenario logged.
Self-correcting
Interval coverage (PICP) tracked live; recalibration triggers on coverage breach; demand-pattern drift alerts.
Yours & everywhere
ERP read + write-back of proposals; your cloud, full source. MCP endpoint for procurement agents.
The number, sized honestly
Reference buyer: Lithuanian / Baltic retailer or distributor, ~€10M revenue, ~500 SKUs, ~5% stockout rate, ~€100k/yr overstock writedowns.
Three ways to own it
| Tier | What you get | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scaffolding ★ | The full repo - models + conformal intervals + pinball/PICP eval harness, audit log, MCP server. Reference run on public retail data. | €1,990 | |
| PoC ★★RECOMMENDED | Trained on your sales history - forecast accuracy and interval coverage backtested against your actual demand, LT calendar included. Code + quality report yours. No guarantee before the backtest speaks. | from €6,000 | |
| Implementation ★★★ | Production: live forecasts in your planning flow, coverage monitoring, re-forecast cadence, retraining, monthly accuracy-vs-naive report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here. | from €18,000 |
★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.
What we don't promise
Ready to see your own number?
Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.
No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU