---
title: "Calibrated Churn Predictor | AimRank"
url: https://www.aimrank.io/products/churn-predictor/
description: "Most churn models give a score nobody trusts. This one gives calibrated probabilities with a reason for each - so retention spend actually pays off. AI prototype from €1,690."
language: en
updated: 2026-10-09
---

[Products · #02 · Sales & Marketing](https://www.aimrank.io/products/)

TIER S REFERENCE BUILD

# Calibrated Churn Predictor

Most churn models give a score nobody trusts. This one gives calibrated probabilities with a reason for each - so retention spend actually pays off.

scaffold from **€1,690**

## How it works

01

### Connect, read-only

Billing + CRM + product usage (Pipedrive, HubSpot, your DB). No PII leaves your environment; the model trains on behavior, not identity.

02

### Calibrated probability per customer

Not a vague "high/medium/low" - a percentage that means what it says, validated with a reliability curve you can inspect.

03

### A reason, in plain language

Top-3 drivers per customer (usage drop, login gap, seat shrinkage) - so marketing builds three targeted save flows instead of one generic blast.

04

### It tells you when it goes stale

Drift monitoring watches your customer mix; when behaviour shifts, you get an alert and a retrain - not silently wrong scores.

## Methodology reference

The published method this build is based on, and what it did in production.

**Duolingo** grew daily active users \~4× since 2019 by modeling retention as a Markov chain of user states.

Markov-chain growth accounting · as reported by [Duolingo Blog ↗](https://blog.duolingo.com/growth-model-duolingo/)

Referenced for methodology only. AimRank is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a customer of these companies; each links to its own public source. Sources last checked September 2026.

## The Four Guarantees™ - this build

The scaffold wires all four in. The PoC proves them on your data, as of that day. Only Implementation keeps them true over time: watched, drift-checked, with recourse.

### Measured value

\~5% of churned ARR recovered (€30k/yr at reference) + €10-15k/yr retention-spend reallocation, against an eval gate agreed before ship.

### Defensible

A reason for every score (GDPR Art. 22 ready); protected attributes excluded by design and audited for proxies; every score logged.

### Self-improving

Isotonic-calibrated probabilities held to a Brier/ECE gate before ship; PSI/KS drift alerts on customer features the moment quality slips; champion/challenger retraining - accuracy compounds.

### Yours & everywhere

Your cloud, full source handover, CRM write-back. MCP scoring endpoint your own agents and copilots can call.

## The number, sized honestly

Reference buyer: Baltic SaaS / telco, \~50,000 subscribers, €20/mo ARPU, \~5%/month churn (≈ €600k churned ARR/yr).

**\~5%** of churned ARR recovered - the agreed number (conservative)

**€30k+** per year retained, plus €10-15k spend reallocated

**\~2 mo** payback at the PoC price, reference volume

**ECE ≤ 0.05** calibration gate - or it doesn't ship

## Three ways to own it

| Tier | What you get | Price | |
| ---------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------- | |
| **Scaffolding** ★ | The full repo - model + calibration + eval harness, Annex IV, audit log, MCP server. Your team wires it to your data. | **€1,690** | |
| **PoC** ★★RECOMMENDED | Trained on your subscriber history - calibration and lift measured on held-out months of your own data. Full code + quality report are yours. No guarantee until your data has spoken. | from**€5,000** | |
| **Implementation** ★★★ | Production: scoring live in your stack, save-flow wiring, calibration monitoring, scheduled retraining, monthly value report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here. | from **€15,000**\+ from €900/month assurance | |

★ = engagement depth. **PoC is the recommended path**: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.

## What we don't promise

**If your product is genuinely broken, no targeting fixes churn.** The model finds who's leaving and why - it can't make them stay against their interest. We say this on the discovery call, not after the invoice. And with under \~18 months of labelled history, expect wider year-one variance - we'll show you the confidence intervals, not hide them.

## Ready to see your own number?

Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.

No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU