---
title: "Demand Forecasting (LT calendar) | AimRank"
url: https://www.aimrank.io/products/demand-forecasting/
description: "Forecasts with honest prediction intervals and scenario planning - cut inventory cost without stockouts. AI prototype from €1,990."
language: en
updated: 2026-10-09
---

[Products · #08 · Operations & Forecasting](https://www.aimrank.io/products/)

TIER S BLUEPRINT

# Demand Forecasting (LT calendar)

Forecasts with honest prediction intervals and scenario planning - cut inventory cost without stockouts.

scaffold from **€1,990**

## How it works

01

### Connect ERP / WMS, read-only

Sales at SKU-store-day level, promotions, stock, lead times. Hierarchical: SKU → category → store → total, reconciled so the numbers add up.

02

### Forecast as a range, not a guess

P10/P50/P90 for the next 14 days, with the Lithuanian calendar built in - holidays, paydays, and that first hot week of summer.

03

### Safety stock from the math

Order proposals sized to your service-level target per category - perishables and slow-movers get different treatment, automatically.

04

### Coverage is watched, honestly

If the 90% interval stops containing \~90% of outcomes, the model recalibrates and tells you - a forecast that can say "I'm less sure this week" is one you can plan on.

## Methodology reference

The published method this build is based on, and what it did in production.

Amazon

**Amazon** cut forecast error \~15% with DeepAR by predicting a full probability distribution instead of a single number.

Probabilistic forecasting · as reported by [arXiv ↗](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04110)

Referenced for methodology only. AimRank is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a customer of these companies; each links to its own public source. Sources last checked September 2026.

## The Four Guarantees™ - this build

The scaffold wires all four in. The PoC proves them on your data, as of that day. Only Implementation keeps them true over time: watched, drift-checked, with recourse.

### Measured value

\~30% less overstock writedown + \~25% fewer stockouts + working capital freed. Pinball-loss + interval-coverage eval gate vs seasonal-naive.

### Defensible

Driver decomposition per forecast - trend, seasonality, promo, holiday. Auditable assumptions; every scenario logged.

### Self-improving

Interval coverage (PICP) tracked live; recalibration triggers on coverage breach; demand-pattern drift alerts.

### Yours & everywhere

ERP read + write-back of proposals; your cloud, full source. MCP endpoint for procurement agents.

## The number, sized honestly

Reference buyer: Lithuanian / Baltic retailer or distributor, \~€10M revenue, \~500 SKUs, \~5% stockout rate, \~€100k/yr overstock writedowns.

**\~30%** overstock writedowns cut ≈ €30k/yr - the agreed number (conservative)

**\~25%** fewer stockouts ≈ €40-60k/yr revenue recovered

**€50-100k** working capital freed via honest safety-stock sizing

**\~1 mo** payback at the PoC price, reference volume

## Three ways to own it

| Tier | What you get | Price | |
| ---------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------- | |
| **Scaffolding** ★ | The full repo - models + conformal intervals + pinball/PICP eval harness, audit log, MCP server. Reference run on public retail data. | **€1,990** | |
| **PoC** ★★RECOMMENDED | Trained on your sales history - forecast accuracy and interval coverage backtested against your actual demand, LT calendar included. Code + quality report yours. No guarantee before the backtest speaks. | from**€6,000** | |
| **Implementation** ★★★ | Production: live forecasts in your planning flow, coverage monitoring, re-forecast cadence, retraining, monthly accuracy-vs-naive report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here. | from **€18,000**\+ from €900/month assurance | |

★ = engagement depth. **PoC is the recommended path**: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.

## What we don't promise

**New SKUs and promo spikes are the hard cases - and the model says so.** It handles them with wider intervals instead of confident nonsense, and your planner keeps override authority on every order. With less than two full years of history, expect wider intervals in year one - the chart above shows uncertainty honestly because that's the only kind of forecast worth planning on.

## Ready to see your own number?

Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.

No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU