Products · #19 · Operations & Forecasting

TIER B BLUEPRINT

Cross-Border Logistics ETA

Honest ETAs with confidence ranges for cross-border freight - including customs reality, not a naive average.

from €1,990

SHIPMENT LT-4471 - VILNIUS → ROTTERDAM · LIVE

Route - segment models

Vilnius

departed 06:10 ✓

PL border

passed · +0.4h vs plan ✓

DE transit

driver rest 9h · EC 561/2006 modeled

NL customs

live queue · median 6h · P90 14h

Rotterdam

delivery window ↓

ETA WINDOW · P10-P90

Thu 14:00 → Fri 18:00

Thu 12:00Fri 06:00Fri 20:00

window narrows as reality replaces assumptions

customs: live queue feed ✓ rest rules modeled ✓ ⚑ risk shifts → customer hears first

🟡 PROMISE MADE AT P80: Fri 12:00 - notified automatically. Calibration tracked monthly.

this lane ▸ window width −58% by mid-route · every ETA logs its inputs ⛓

How it works

Learn your lanes

Segment-level history from your TMS and telematics - borders, hubs, ferries - per carrier and weekday, not one blended average.

Model the ugly parts

Customs queues from live and historical data, driver-rest rules (EC 561/2006), ferry slots. Cross-border ETAs break exactly here.

Quote a window, not a wish

P10-P90 at booking; the window narrows as milestones pass. Customer promises are made at P80 - a number we stand behind.

Tell the customer first

Proactive notifications when risk shifts. Calibration is public to you: how often reality landed inside the promised window, monthly.

The Four Guarantees™ - this build

Measured value

~30% cut in status-chasing calls and emails at reference volume; eval gate: window coverage backtested on your lane history before ship.

Defensible

Every ETA logs its inputs - segment times, queue data, rest constraints. No fabricated precision; the window width is visible, never hidden.

Self-correcting

Calibration monitored monthly - P80 promises must land ~80% of the time; lane models re-fit as carriers and routes change; stale feeds flagged.

Yours & everywhere

Wired to your TMS and telematics, full source. MCP endpoint - your customer portal and ops copilots read ETAs directly.

The number, sized honestly

Reference buyer: Lithuanian freight forwarder or 3PL - cross-border EU lanes, 500-3,000 shipments per month, ops team drowning in "kur mano krovinys?" calls.

~30% fewer status-chasing calls - the agreed number (conservative)

P80 promise level - calibration tracked and reported monthly

100% of ETAs logged with their inputs

~3 mo payback at the PoC tier

Three ways to own it

Tier	What you get	Price
Scaffolding ★	The full repo - lane-segment models, customs-queue module, rest-rule engine, calibration harness, MCP server. Reference run on public logistics data.	€1,990
PoC ★★RECOMMENDED	Lane models trained on your TMS history - window coverage and calibration backtested on your real shipments. Code + quality report yours. No guarantee until your lanes prove it.	from €6,000
Implementation ★★★	Production: live ETAs with customer notifications, calibration monitoring (P80 must land ~80%), lane-model maintenance, monthly savings report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here.	from €18,000

★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.

What we don't promise

An honest ETA is a range, not a wish. We won't quote a single magic hour - we quote a window and the probability we stand behind it, and we track how often reality lands inside (that number lives on your dashboard, not in our marketing). Customs queues are modeled from live and historical data, but a surprise inspection is still a surprise - the system's job is to tell your customer six hours earlier, not to pretend it can't happen.

Ready to see your own number?

Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.

No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU