No-Show Prediction + Safe Overbooking
Predict no-shows and overbook safely - recover lost slots without double-booking real patients.
TOMORROW · CHAIR 2 - RISK SCAN + OVERBOOK
Appointments · Wed
expected empty chairs: 1.1 → overbooked 1 · your cap: max 2/day · double-booking risk held under 3%
11:00 · M. Petrauskas · hygiene visit
no-show probability · calibrated - 6 in 10 like this one don't come. Booking metadata only, never medical records.
Why - top 3 drivers
🟡 patient messaging is clinic-approved - templates & frequency yours
How it works
Connect the scheduling system
Mediq, Clinica or custom - read-only. The model sees booking metadata only: lead time, history, reminders. Never diagnoses, never treatment data.
Calibrated risk per appointment
Overbooking math is only safe with true probabilities - calibration isn't a feature here, it IS the product. Validated on your history before go-live.
Overbook under YOUR cap
Expected-cost optimisation weighs an empty chair against a turned-away patient. The cap and the turn-away tolerance are your risk decisions, not the model's - and the cap is never exceeded. It bounds your exposure; it does not promise zero.
Reminders, clinic-approved
High-risk appointments can trigger an extra reminder - with templates and frequency your clinic signs off. Seasonal drift watched (holidays shift behaviour).
Methodology reference
The published method this build is based on, and what it did in production.
American Airlines pioneered no-show forecasting and overbooking optimization (DINAMO), valued at ~$1.4B over three years.
No-show → overbooking optimization · as reported by INFORMS ↗
Referenced for methodology only. AimRank is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a customer of these companies; each links to its own public source. Sources last checked September 2026.
The Four Guarantees™ - this build
The scaffold wires all four in. The PoC proves them on your data, as of that day. Only Implementation keeps them true over time: watched, drift-checked, with recourse.
Measured value
On the lab build, tested on the latest week the model never saw: €14.73 recovered per no-show, and a backtest that realised 1.18x its own forecast.
Defensible
Per-appointment risk reasons; no protected-class or clinical features; GDPR-grade (health-adjacent) audit log of every decision.
Self-improving
Calibration held to a Brier/ECE gate before ship, because the overbooking math demands true probabilities, then tracked continuously; seasonal + behavioural drift alerts the moment quality slips; corrections feed the model monthly.
Yours & everywhere
Scheduling-system write-back with the cap enforced; your cloud, full source. MCP tools for clinic-ops agents (🟡 messaging gated).
The number, sized honestly
Reference buyer: Lithuanian / Baltic private clinic group, ~500 appointments/week, ~12% no-show rate, ~€60 revenue per visit.
Three ways to own it
| Tier | What you get | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scaffolding ★ | The full repo - calibrated model + overbooking policy + reason layer, audit log, MCP server. Reference run on public clinic data. | €1,290 | |
| PoC ★★RECOMMENDED | A decision, not software. You export your appointment history once (CSV - no integration); we refit and calibrate on your patients, then replay the overbooking policy against weeks that already happened. You get the measured euro number, the eval-gate verdict, the Annex IV dossier and a written go/no-go - including 'don't buy the build'. | €4,900 · fixed scope · delivered in 10-15 working days | |
| Implementation ★★★ | Production: live in your scheduling flow, caps enforced, monthly recovered-slots report. The agreed number attaches here - set from YOUR PoC backtest, not from our reference figures. Calibration monitoring, drift alerts and seasonal retraining run on the assurance plan (+ from €900/month assurance), because a model that keeps earning its number needs watching, not just shipping. | from €12,000+ from €900/month assurance |
★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.
What we don't promise
Ready to see your own number?
Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.
No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU