Energy Demand Forecasting

Load forecasts you can balance a portfolio on - hourly P10/P50/P90, calibration you can check, EU transparency reporting baked in.

scaffold from €2,490

LOAD FORECAST - PORTFOLIO LT-B2 · DAY-AHEAD

LOAD, MWP10-P90 fan · P50 dashed

−24 hnow+24 h

Drivers - tonight's run

temp −4°C overnight · heating load ↑ 3 weather runs agree · fan kept tight LT calendar: workday · no holiday effect

Day-ahead nomination - 24 hourly values

MAPE last 30 d ······ 2.8% ✓

interval calibration · P90 covers 91% ✓

⚠ evening peak - interval widened, priced

transparency report ·· auto-prepared ✓

🟡 NOMINATION SUBMITTED - trader reviews. Imbalance exposure priced, not ignored.

month ▸ imbalance cost −23% vs naive baseline · every forecast archived with inputs ⛓

How it works

Learn your load shape

Two years of your metering data: the daily double peak, weekday vs weekend, Lithuanian holidays, degree-days - your portfolio, not a textbook curve.

Feed it real weather

Multiple numerical weather runs, not yesterday's temperature. When the runs disagree, the fan widens - honestly.

Forecast with intervals

Hourly P10/P50/P90 for day-ahead and intraday; peaks flagged. Calibration is tracked so that P90 actually means 90%.

File and learn

Nominations to your trader, ENTSO-E transparency reporting auto-prepared, every forecast archived with its inputs. Monthly imbalance-cost report.

Methodology reference

The published method this build is based on, and what it did in production.

National Grid ESO forecasts solar generation from satellite imagery (with Open Climate Fix) to cut fossil-fuel spinning reserve.

Satellite-image solar nowcasting · as reported by National Grid ESO ↗

Referenced for methodology only. AimRank is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a customer of these companies; each links to its own public source. Sources last checked September 2026.

The Four Guarantees™ - this build

The scaffold wires all four in. The PoC proves them on your data, as of that day. Only Implementation keeps them true over time: watched, drift-checked, with recourse.

Measured value

~20% imbalance-cost cut vs your current method - the agreed number (conservative), backtested on two years of your load before go-live.

Defensible

Every forecast archived with its inputs - weather run, calendar, model version. Auditable when the regulator or balancing partner asks. ENTSO-E reporting built in.

Self-improving

Intraday recalibration as weather runs update; interval calibration tracked monthly; drift alerts on structural change - a new large consumer, solar growth.

Yours & everywhere

Runs in your cloud, full source. MCP endpoint - your trading desk tools and copilots read forecasts directly.

The number, sized honestly

Reference buyer: Lithuanian or Baltic energy supplier, DSO or industrial balancing-group member - a portfolio where imbalance settlement is a visible line on the P&L.

~20% imbalance-cost cut - the agreed number (conservative)

P10-P90 hourly intervals, day-ahead and intraday

P90 = 90% interval calibration tracked and reported monthly

~3 mo payback at the PoC price, at reference imbalance costs

Three ways to own it

Tier	What you get	Price
Scaffolding ★	The full repo - load forecasting pipeline (LT calendar + degree-days), weather ingestion, interval-calibration harness, transparency-report generator, MCP server. Reference run on public ENTSO-E data.	€2,490
PoC ★★RECOMMENDED	Trained on two years of your metering data - MAPE and interval calibration backtested against your actual load. Code + quality report yours. No guarantee before the backtest speaks.	from€7,500
Implementation ★★★	Production: day-ahead + intraday runs, nomination workflow, calibration monitoring, weather-feed maintenance, retraining, monthly imbalance-cost report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here.	from €22,500+ from €900/month assurance

★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.

What we don't promise

A forecast that hides its uncertainty is a liability priced by someone else. We ship intervals and track their calibration - if our P90 stops covering 90%, you see it on the dashboard before we explain it. Extreme events still surprise forecasts: a cold snap the weather models missed, a large consumer tripping offline. The system's job is to widen honestly when the weather runs disagree - not to smooth over risk you're the one paying for.

Ready to see your own number?

Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.

No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU