Products · #20 · Operations & Forecasting

TIER B BLUEPRINT

Energy Demand Forecasting

Load forecasts you can balance a portfolio on - hourly P10/P50/P90, calibration you can check, EU transparency reporting baked in.

from €2,490

LOAD FORECAST - PORTFOLIO LT-B2 · DAY-AHEAD

LOAD, MWP10-P90 fan · P50 dashed

−24 hnow+24 h

Drivers - tonight's run

temp −4°C overnight · heating load ↑ 3 weather runs agree · fan kept tight LT calendar: workday · no holiday effect

Day-ahead nomination - 24 hourly values

MAPE last 30 d ······ 2.8% ✓

interval calibration · P90 covers 91% ✓

⚠ evening peak - interval widened, priced

transparency report ·· auto-prepared ✓

🟡 NOMINATION SUBMITTED - trader reviews. Imbalance exposure priced, not ignored.

month ▸ imbalance cost −23% vs naive baseline · every forecast archived with inputs ⛓

How it works

Learn your load shape

Two years of your metering data: the daily double peak, weekday vs weekend, Lithuanian holidays, degree-days - your portfolio, not a textbook curve.

Feed it real weather

Multiple numerical weather runs, not yesterday's temperature. When the runs disagree, the fan widens - honestly.

Forecast with intervals

Hourly P10/P50/P90 for day-ahead and intraday; peaks flagged. Calibration is tracked so that P90 actually means 90%.

File and learn

Nominations to your trader, ENTSO-E transparency reporting auto-prepared, every forecast archived with its inputs. Monthly imbalance-cost report.

The Four Guarantees™ - this build

Measured value

~20% imbalance-cost cut vs your current method - the agreed number (conservative), backtested on two years of your load before go-live.

Defensible

Every forecast archived with its inputs - weather run, calendar, model version. Auditable when the regulator or balancing partner asks. ENTSO-E reporting built in.

Self-correcting

Intraday recalibration as weather runs update; interval calibration tracked monthly; drift alerts on structural change - a new large consumer, solar growth.

Yours & everywhere

Runs in your cloud, full source. MCP endpoint - your trading desk tools and copilots read forecasts directly.

The number, sized honestly

Reference buyer: Lithuanian or Baltic energy supplier, DSO or industrial balancing-group member - a portfolio where imbalance settlement is a visible line on the P&L.

~20% imbalance-cost cut - the agreed number (conservative)

P10-P90 hourly intervals, day-ahead and intraday

P90 = 90% interval calibration tracked and reported monthly

~3 mo payback at the PoC tier at reference imbalance costs

Three ways to own it

Tier	What you get	Price
Scaffolding ★	The full repo - load forecasting pipeline (LT calendar + degree-days), weather ingestion, interval-calibration harness, transparency-report generator, MCP server. Reference run on public ENTSO-E data.	€2,490
PoC ★★RECOMMENDED	Trained on two years of your metering data - MAPE and interval calibration backtested against your actual load. Code + quality report yours. No guarantee before the backtest speaks.	from €7,500
Implementation ★★★	Production: day-ahead + intraday runs, nomination workflow, calibration monitoring, weather-feed maintenance, retraining, monthly imbalance-cost report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here.	from €22,500

★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.

What we don't promise

A forecast that hides its uncertainty is a liability priced by someone else. We ship intervals and track their calibration - if our P90 stops covering 90%, you see it on the dashboard before we explain it. Extreme events still surprise forecasts: a cold snap the weather models missed, a large consumer tripping offline. The system's job is to widen honestly when the weather runs disagree - not to smooth over risk you're the one paying for.

Ready to see your own number?

Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.

No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU