TIER S BLUEPRINT

Explainable Lead Scoring

A calibrated probability of conversion and a plain-English reason per lead - not a black-box number sales ignores.

from €1,290

THIS MORNING'S LEADS - SCORED & RANKED

Inbound queue · 14 new

Tomas V.whitepaper dl4%

Baltic Components UABreferral34%

Eglė M.newsletter6%

Nordic Freight OÜpricing page19%

Darius B.webinar12%

↕ re-ranked by conversion probability - SDRs call top-down

Baltic Components UAB · 120 seats · manufacturing

34%

conversion probability · baseline 3% · 11× the average lead

Why - top 3 drivers

+ Referral from an existing customer

+ Pricing page visited 3× in 48 hours

+ Company size squarely in your ICP (50-200)

→ ROUTED: senior SDR · call within 4h (bottom 30% → nurture, no SDR time spent)

lift@top-decile 4.2× · leakage audit passed · score + reasons → CRM ⛓

How it works

Connect the CRM, read-only

Pipedrive, HubSpot, Salesforce or a spreadsheet. Trains on your own closed-won/lost history - with a leakage audit so it only uses what's known at lead creation.

Calibrated probability per lead

Not "hot/warm/cold" - a percentage that means what it says. When it says 30%, roughly 3 in 10 convert. Validated on your data before ship.

Reasons a salesperson accepts

Top-3 drivers in plain English written into the CRM next to the score. SDRs trust what they can see - no black box, no ignored column.

Routing that changes behaviour

Top decile → senior SDR, double touches. Bottom 30% → nurture only. Drift watch on lead-source mix - a new campaign won't silently break the model.

The Four Guarantees™ - this build

Measured value

+1.5pp conversion at reference volume ≈ €120k incremental ARR. Lift/gain eval gate at your SDR capacity cut-off before ship.

Defensible

SHAP top-3 per lead in plain English; bias controls on scoring features; every score logged with its reasons.

Self-correcting

Calibrated probabilities re-checked continuously; lead-source-mix drift alerts - marketing campaigns change, the model notices.

Yours & everywhere

Full CRM round-trip (score + reason written back); your cloud, your source. MCP endpoint for your sales agents and copilots.

The number, sized honestly

Reference buyer: Baltic B2B SaaS or services firm, ~2,000 leads/yr, €4,000 average deal, ~3% cold-to-customer conversion.

+1.5pp conversion lift (3% → 4.5%) - the agreed number (conservative)

€120k incremental ARR/yr ≈ 30 extra deals at €4k

~2 wks payback at the PoC tier if one extra deal closes

4.2× typical lift in the top decile vs average lead

Three ways to own it

Tier	What you get	Price
Scaffolding ★	The full repo - model + calibration + lift harness, audit log, MCP server. Your team wires it to your pipeline.	€1,290
PoC ★★RECOMMENDED	Trained on your CRM history - ranking quality and explanation sanity checked against your closed deals. Full code + quality report are yours. No guarantee yet - that's the point.	from €3,900
Implementation ★★★	Production: live scoring in the CRM, queue integration, drift monitoring, retraining on new outcomes, monthly report - the agreed number (conservative) attaches here.	from €12,000

★ = engagement depth. PoC is the recommended path: quality proven on your data before production money. The PoC carries no performance guarantee by design; the agreed number (conservative) attaches at Implementation, informed by the PoC report.

What we don't promise

The model is only as good as your deal history. With fewer than ~500 closed deals on record, expect higher variance in year one and budget for retraining - we tell you this before the contract, not after. And the score changes nothing by itself: the routing rule (who calls whom, when) is where the money is, and your team has to actually follow it.

Ready to see your own number?

Request the build: within 48h you get a personal reply with the value sized to your volume.

No commitment · reply within 48h · your data stays in the EU